Crack the Code: When (and Who) Should Brokers Target Each Season?
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September 2, 2025 |
Crack the Code: When (and Who) Should Brokers Target Each Season?
The needs change, but the opportunities never vanish—they simply shift with the season.
Have you ever looked back on a quiet month and wondered why deals seemed to disappear?
The truth is, borrowers were still making financial decisions—just not the ones you expected. Sometimes it’s debt consolidation, then it’s relocations, and later it’s renewals. The needs change, but the opportunities never vanish. They simply shift with the season.
For mortgage brokers, the challenge isn’t the lack of opportunity—it’s knowing when each type of demand is most likely to show up and who is making those moves. Just like retailers plan for back-to-school or holiday shopping, brokers can map out their year using the seasonal rhythms of Canada’s mortgage market.
Understanding the Canadian Mortgage Seasonality
Mortgage activity in Canada tends to rise and fall with the seasons. From weather and school schedules to financial planning cycles and tax deadlines, these predictable factors shape borrower behaviour year after year. While pandemic disruptions and interest rate hikes shook this rhythm temporarily, the patterns are re-emerging in 2024 and 2025.
Here’s what the data tells us:
Spring = Purchase Peaks: Mortgage originations typically surge between March and June, with May often representing the highest volume of funded deals. In 2024, net mortgage credit rose from ~$4B in March to $10.6B in May. While these figures show when deals close, most buyers start seeking financing or preapprovals months earlier; this means brokers can ramp up outreach for preapprovals in late January or early February to match when clients begin their search ahead of the spring rush.
Winter = Refinance & Debt Consolidation: Each January, Canadians tackle holiday credit card debt. In 2024, credit card balances hit a record $124B, averaging $4,500 per borrower.
Fall = Renewals: An estimated 60% of Canadian mortgages are set to renew by 2026, with a large portion falling between September and January. Borrowers renewing in 2025 are facing an average payment increase of 10%.
Knowing this cycle means brokers can ride the wave instead of waiting on it.
Quarter 1: Reset and Reposition (January–March)
January – Debt Consolidation Prime Time
Holiday bills land with a thud. With national credit card debt surpassing $124B and Millennials holding the largest share, January is the ideal time for brokers to position mortgage refinancing as a debt relief strategy. Refinancing $50,000 of high-interest credit card debt into a mortgage could save borrowers over $7,500 annually, as the interest rate drops substantially when switching from credit card to mortgage financing.
Please refer to the graph below to see how annual interest costs stack up between carrying $50,000 in credit card debt at 20% interest versus refinancing that amount into a mortgage at 5% interest.
Total Interest Paid
The difference is stark: interest charges drop from $10,000 per year on credit cards to just $2,500 on a mortgage, yielding potential savings of more than $7,500 annually. This highlights the financial upside for borrowers—and the opportunity for brokers—to advocate for mortgage refinancing as a smart debt consolidation solution in the new year.
February – Renewal Engagement Begins
Roughly 1.2 million mortgages are coming up for renewal in 2025, with many borrowers expected to face payment increases of around 10%. Now, as we enter fall, brokers who began renewal outreach in February are in prime position—but there is still opportunity to add value for upcoming renewals.
March – Pre-Approval Acceleration
With mortgage rates stabilizing and new federal policy changes allowing 30-year amortizations and insured mortgage caps raised to $1.5M, affordability for first-time buyers has improved. March is the warm-up lap—the perfect time to push pre-approvals and educate clients before the spring purchase wave hits.
Quarter 2: Peak Purchase Season (April–June)
This is the Super Bowl of mortgage brokering. In 2024, mortgage volumes jumped over 2x from winter lows to spring highs, peaking in May.
Additionally, nearly 50% of homebuyers used brokers in 2024, while alternative lenders grew to capture 10–12% of the market share—underscoring the need for brokers to offer fast, flexible, and tech-enabled services.
This is when brokers need to shine:
Deliver speed & digital ease (clients expect it).
Strengthen realtor partnerships.
Offer flexible options for first-time buyers and property investors alike.
Spring is when brokers prove whether they can keep pace—or get left behind for the rest of the year.
Quarter 3: Smart Diversification (July–September)
Summer isn’t slow—it’s just different. Monthly mortgage lending remained steady around $6–10B through Summer 2024. But the players shift: relocators, investors, and recreational buyers take center stage.
Brokers can win this season by:
Highlight niche products like HELOCs, second-home financing, and rental property loans.
Run webinars related to property investments to capture curious borrowers.
Partner with alternative lenders who specialize in flexible, non-traditional solutions.
Quarter 4: Renewal Goldmine (October–December)
The fall season belongs to renewals. With 60% of mortgages set to renew by 2026, many fall between October and January. Many borrowers are facing payment increases of 10% or more.
Now is the time to:
Lock in early renewals before year-end
Help clients extend amortizations to ease payment shock
Prep marketing for January’s debt consolidation spike
Holiday spending creates a fresh batch of credit card debt. Position yourself now as the go-to advisor for both refinancing and renewal.
Wrapping It Up: Your Year-Round Advantage
Many brokers chase spring. The best? They win all year.
Winter: Debt relief & refinance
Spring: Purchase surge
Summer: Niche opportunities
Fall: Renewals & planning
The key is to stop reacting and start anticipating. By aligning your marketing, outreach, and product positioning with Canada’s seasonal mortgage patterns, you don’t just survive market shifts—you thrive through them.
Your next step? Dive into your own client data. Map upcoming renewals. Track who’s asking about refinancing. Look for the patterns—and then launch campaigns that meet clients exactly where they are.
Because in this business, timing isn’t everything. Timing is the only thing.
Author Profile
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Marketing Manager at Neighbourhood Holdings |
Jessica Yang is the Marketing Manager at Neighbourhood Holdings, where she leads marketing campaigns and content strategy. As a UBC Media Studies graduate, Jessica also completed BrainStation’s Digital Marketing Program and became a BCFSA-licensed mortgage broker.
Beyond her professional pursuits, Jessica enjoys travelling and documenting her experiences through vlogging, finding inspiration in exploring new cultures and sharing her journey with others.
This blog post is intended for informational and educational purposes only and is directed toward licensed mortgage brokers. It does not constitute financial advice, a mortgage offer, or a commitment to lend. All lending decisions are subject to underwriting review and applicable lending criteria. Please consult your Business Development Manager or underwriter for guidance on specific client files.